Why The National League North Title Race Could Be A Story For The Ages

Scunthorpe United’s stunning start to life under former player-turned-manager Andy Butler saw them set the pace for the first 12 matchdays. Now they are fourth with just three points separating them from new leaders Chorley.

Tom Bodell from title sponsors Vanarama takes a closer look at the underlying data to see if there are any clues about the destination of the title this season.

A run of five wins in their last seven have seen Chorley ascend to the National League North summit. Three of those four wins have been 2-1 wins. Andy Preece’s side have only netted more than twice in a League game on three occasions this season.

Yet the Magpies boast the second-best expected goals (xG) figure in the North. Expected goals give every shot a likelihood of scoring between 0-1. Factors including shot type, distance and position influence this.

In Chorley’s case, their xG total of 35.09 is second only to Kidderminster Harriers on 36.5. However, both sides could and – according to the data – should have found the back of the net more often. The leaders have left 7.09 goals on the field, while Harriers are 10.5 goals behind their xG figure.

It isn’t, of course, realistic to expect any team to put away every chance they create. Misfortune or good goalkeeping accounts for some variance. But both outfits can find improvement on that front.

For context, Radcliffe and Marine are 10.62 and 11.75 goals behind their xG tallies at this stage. They sit 21st and 22nd respectively in Vanarama National League North. It is more common to find struggling sides falling short of their expected numbers.

Scunthorpe are virtually matching their xG numbers. They are projected to have scored 32.64 goals this term and they have struck 31 times so far, making them the highest scorers in the division.

Curzon Ashton, in third, trail their xG figure of 24.89 by 3.39 goals. However, the Nash sit 10th in the xG table, meaning Craig Mahon’s side need to work on creating better opportunities.

We can see from their xG shot map a proclivity for shots from outside the penalty area which by their nature are less likely to result in a goal – even if there are a few stars indicating goals from outside the box this season!

Defensively, it’s good news for Kidderminster. Using the expected goals against (xGA) metric, which works exactly the same as xG but for shots faced, no one has done better this term.

Phil Brown’s side have faced chances worth 15.83 goals this season – the fewest of anyone in National League North. Their xGA shot map shows hardly any high-value opportunities (dark red dots).

Close behind are third-placed Curzon Ashton with an xGA total of 16.82. They have let in just 11 – the least in the division – meaning an impressive over performance of 5.82.

Chorley, however, have an xGA tally of 25.01. They have only shipped 19 but that difference of 6.01 suggests some poor finishing or good goalkeeping. It is unlikely to be sustainable either way and could catch up with the Magpies who are eighth for this metric.

Keep an eye out for Chester, too. The Seals have the fifth-best xG (30.22) but are 12.22 goals behind the pace having found the back of the net 18 times. If they can close that gap, Cal McIntyre’s men will be a side to fear.

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MAIN IMAGE CREDIT - ADE HOSKINS