Vanarama’s Deal In Focus: Ricky Aguiar

Ricky Aguiar became the latest player to be re-united with former Rebels boss Adam Hinshelwood at the LNER this week, after spending the first half of last season on loan in West Sussex.

He follows attacking full-back Joe Felix, 43-goal Ollie Pearce, former Worthing No.1 Harrison Male and Marvin Armstrong, who joined via Barnet, in linking up with Hinshelwood once more in Yorkshire.

Aguiar, 23, started out with Worthing when they were members of the Isthmian League Premier Division, twice winning Manager’s Player of the Year and adding Players’ Player of the Year to his list of accolades.

Snapped up by EFL League 2 Swindon Town in August 2021, Aguiar spent time in Vanarama National League South at Chippenham Town, contributing a goal every other game.

Returning to Worthing on loan for the first half of 2023/24, he struck 11 times in 25 League appearances before being recalled by the Robins in January.

Based on York City’s pre-season opener against Championship promotion hopefuls Sheffield United, Hinshelwood will deploy a 4-3-3 shape this term. His Worthing side were tactically flexible, regularly switching between a back four and a three-man defence.

However, in the first half of last term they most frequently started in a 4-2-3-1 shape with Aguiar alongside the more defensively minded Odei Martin at the base of midfield. He was certainly not limited in that role – as seen from his heat map.

A better illustration of this is Aguiar’s passes received and movements made map. This shows, in yellow, where he most frequently collected the ball. The dashed lines indicate where he then moved with it most often – to the flanks and dropping deeper in midfield.

Among all central midfielders in Vanarama National League South, Aguiar ranked fourth for passes received per 90 minutes (37). That indicates the importance of his role in Worthing’s build-up play.

Two of the players ahead of him in that metric were former team-mates at Woodside Road: Kane Wills (43.5) and Michael Klass (38.4).

If you have already watched Aguiar’s highlight reel, then you will know about his goalscoring knack. A volume shooter in the first half of last term, no central midfielder in the South attempted more shots per 90 minutes than his 2.86.

His 11 goals came against an expected goals value of just 5.52, however. Expected goals (xG) take into account a number of factors to ascribe a value to a chance. For example, position, distance and the number of defenders between the shooter and goal.

We can see from his xG shot map that the number of high-value chances (dark red) was extremely low. He only took a handful of shots from inside the penalty area in his time with Worthing.

Aguiar’s dramatic over-performance indicates either an element fortune – or poor defending – on his part. His stunner in the 4-3 defeat against Dartford in November was just one example of that.

A corner from the left was swung out to him on the edge of the box where he took a touch with his chest before launching a sumptuous half-volley into the top corner. More often than not, those chances find row Z!

But Aguiar is not like other midfielders. That is why York brought him to the LNER – for his ability to do the unexpected. City fans will soon learn to expect the unexpected.

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