The Vanarama View: Will Iron Hold Firm In North Battle?

The Iron are the early pace setters – but what does the underlying data say about their fine start?

With 10 games gone in the North, Tom Bodell from title sponsors Vanarama takes a closer look at the numbers behind some of the stories of the season so far. Starting with the league leaders.

So impressive have the Iron been, they recently handed manager Andy Butler and assistant John Schofield new contracts until the summer of 2026 – a sign of their faith in the duo who replaced Jimmy Dean over the summer.

And with some justification. Only fourth-placed Chorley (18) have scored more goals than United’s 16. It’s the Magpies who lead the North for expected goals (xG), too.

This is a value given to every shot between zero and one, based on the likelihood of it going in. Numerous factors decide this, including the distance to goal, the type of shot and number of bodies between the shooter and goal.

For context, a penalty is usually worth around 0.75 in most xG models. In other words, a 75% chance of going in.

Interestingly, Scunthorpe rank 10th for xG at this stage, having created chances worth 15.75 goals so far. The pleasing aspect for Butler and co. is that they aren’t overperforming that figure by a potentially unsustainable amount.

For example, Scarborough Athletic have recorded a seasonal xG of 11.58 while netting 16 times – the biggest variance in the division. Over the course of a 46-game season it is unlikely they can match that. But, if they do, Jonathan Greening’s men are likely to be in the promotion mix-up!

Defensively, United are one of the league’s biggest overperformers. Their expected goals against (xGA) tally is 11.66 – yet they have conceded just five goals. That points to poor finishing from their opponents, exceptional goalkeeping from Ross Fitzsimons – or a combination of both.

More importantly, the Iron are fifth overall for xGA which is a good position to be in. If they can continue to limit the quality of the chances they concede, Fitzsimons will keep adding to his six clean sheets.

At the other end of the table, there’s cause for optimism for newly promoted Radcliffe. The Boro prop up Vanarama National League North, but performances have outstripped results.

Anthony Johnson and Bernard Morley’s side have the fifth-highest xG in the division at 18.27. But they have found the back of the net 12 times, an underperformance of 6.27 goals which is the fourth greatest.

At the other end, they’re conceding at a higher rate than the data suggests they ought to, shipping 21 instead of the 15.78 our xG model has pegged them for. Only Oxford City (+5.25) and Southport (+6.34) are being more generous in that metric.

In fact, the Hoops are another side who make for interesting reading on closing examination.

Now back under the auspices of Ross Jenkins, Oxford have scored 5.24 goals fewer than their xG total (18.24) while conceding 5.25 more than they might have (24) at this stage to give them the most porous defence in the North.

It’s not nicknamed the Vanadrama for nothing – and we expect plenty of twists and turns to come!

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PHOTOS BY SIMON GODFREY AND DAVID AIREY