The Vanarama View: Who Will Win The 'All Change' Battle

Braintree Town’s decision to part company with Angelo Harrop meant four of the bottom five at the time have changed managers this season.

Two of those sides – AFC Fylde and Ebbsfleet United – meet on December 10. Tom Bodell from title sponsors Vanarama takes a closer look at the data to see whether those times who have shuffled the pack are seeing a benefit.

Ebbsfleet were first to twist, relieving Danny Searle of his duties on September 9. Six days later, Fylde moved on from Chris Beech.

Both men were appointed from within last season after the managers who got them promoted to the National League – Dennis Kutrieb and Adam Murray – were sacked.

At the Kuflink Stadium, a run of six defeats and two draws from their first eight spelled the end for former Aldershot Town boss Searle. In his place came Harry Watling, a UEFA Pro Licensed coach with experience at Chelsea, West Ham United and Millwall.

Watling secured Fleet’s first win of the season in his first game in charge – 1-0 over Hartlepool United – but has yet to taste victory since.

Under Searle, the Kent outfit were averaging 0.5 goals per 90 minutes. In other words, a goal every other game. Their expected goals (xG) per 90, which measures the value of every shot a team takes between 0-1, was just 0.82.

Since Watling’s appointment, they have scored 0.92 goals per 90 with an xG of 0.9. In other words, they’re now scoring at a rate commensurate with the quality of chances they create.

However, their xG is still the National League’s lowest. In Dom Poleon – who struck 16 times last season – they have a reliable source of goals. But only if they create chances for the St. Lucia international.

Defensively, the Fleet’s expected goals against (xGA) has been consistent, improving slightly from 1.7 to 1.69. Clearly, conceding chances worth almost two goals per game is not sustainable – particularly when you’re averaging less than a goal at the other end.

Non-penalty goals conceded have fallen from 2.25 to two per 90 but that is still tracking higher than their xGA figure suggests it ought to.

On the West Lancashire coast, AFC Fylde bit the bullet on September 15 with Nathan Delfouneso and Chris Neal overseeing five games before former South Shields and Hartlepool United boss Phillips got the gig.

The Coasters have picked up statement wins over Gateshead and Boston United under Phillips, but the same defensive frailties remain. Only Ebbsfleet (44) and Maidenhead United (43) have shipped more than their 41 goals.

The number of goals the Coasters are scoring has hardly changed (1.13 per 90 to 1.17) but their xG has risen from 0.82 to 1.13. That can be chalked up as a success as it suggests Fylde were fortunate to be scoring at their earlier rate – now it is more sustainable. Shots are up, too, from 8.5 to 9.42.

Stylistically is where the biggest difference can be found. Beech’s side averaged 220.13 completed passes per 90 – ranking 22nd in the Vanarama National League. Since his exit, the Wesham outfit complete 332.33 per 90, putting them 7th. The result of which can be seen in their increased xG.

The biggest area for improvement, though, is defensively. Fylde are still conceding valuable chances at a rate of 2.24 xGA per 90. As a result, keepers Theo Richardson and Ben Winterbottom are overworked – only one team makes more saves per 90 than their 3.42.

Tuesday’s clash between these two should give us some indication of whether either side can haul themselves away from trouble.

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