The Vanarama View: What Can We Read Into South Start?

Not even the Tudors might have expected to lead the division, but they were certainly optimistic of being at the right end of the table.

With 10 games gone in the South, Tom Bodell from title sponsors Vanarama takes a closer look at the numbers behind some of the stories of the season so far. Starting with the Vauxhall Road outfit.

Just four points keep Hemel Hempstead the right side of the dotted line last season as former Weymouth and Wealdstone boss Bobby Wilkinson took up the reins with one game remaining.

He was the Tudors’ third manager of the season, replacing interim Alan Dowson who had been unable to steady the ship after succeeding the popular Brad Quinton in March.

It’s been all change this season – just not in the dugout.

The Tudors rank fourth in National League South for expected goals (xG). This is a value given to every shot between zero and one, based on the likelihood of it going in. Numerous factors decide this, including the distance to goal, the type of shot and number of bodies between the shooter and goal.

For context, a penalty is usually worth around 0.75 in most xG models. In other words, a 75% chance of going in.

With an xG of 20.36, Hemel rank fourth in the South with only Boreham Wood (23.97), Chesham United (22.44) and Slough Town (21.19) ahead of them. Defensively, their expected goals against (xGA) value is 13.87. They have conceded just 11, giving them an overperformance of 2.87.

A few miles away, Boreham Wood have gone Back to the Future in re-appointing their old manager Luke Garrard, who left at the end of last season following relegation from the Vanarama National League.

The decision to part from Ross Jenkins so early in a re-build was bold but the underlying numbers suggest the Wood should have been performing better under the former – and now current – Oxford City manager.

As well as topping the xG charts, they lead the way for non-penalty xG (22.19) and have the highest expected goal difference with 10.73. Do not rule them out of an immediate return to the National division.

Safely mid-table in 12th, new-boys Chesham United might have their aims set on something a little higher based on their underlying numbers.

The Generals are the fifth-biggest underperformers for xG. That metric says they should have scored 22.44 but they’ve hit the back of the net 17 times – a deviance of 5.44.

It’s a similar story at the other end where their xGA figure (12.53) is dwarfed by the number of goals they’ve actually shipped – 16.

Only Dorking Wanderers have performed worse in that metric. Among the pre-season favourites for the National League South title – thanks in no small part to their enigmatic boss Marc White – Wanderers are currently 11th.

The former Crawley & District League outfit have the biggest difference between the number of goals their xGA says they should have let in (9.95) and what they have managed (14).

If the Surrey side can tighten up and cut out defensive errors, they should start climbing the table. They are also among the most profligate sides in the division, having scored 6.02 goals fewer than their xG tally suggests they ought to have.

A penny for Mr White’s thoughts?

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PHOTOS BY JEMMA SEAR AND @alexbphoto