The Vanarama View: Title Omens Could Be On Barnet's Side!

Barnet are due to win promotion from the Vanarama National League this season.

It’s 10 years since their last title win under Martin Allen. Which, coincidentally or not, was a decade after the last time they won this division with Paul Fairclough at the helm.

Tom Bodell from title sponsors Vanarama takes a closer look at goings on at The Hive...

Current Bees boss Dean Brennan was unequivocal over the summer. More than once, he declared his side would be viewed as the title favourites. After 12 games, that’s exactly where the North Londoners sit – two points clear of second-placed York City.

Despite finishing comfortably second last term, behind runaway champions Chesterfield, it was a summer of change at The Hive. Key players Laurie Walker, Dale Gorman and Harry Pritchard moved on, while 15 fresh faces arrived. Player of the Season Anthony Hartigan returned permanently after impressing on loan from Mansfield Town.

But it’s not just in terms of personal where there’s been a revolution. On the field, the Bees have put greater emphasis than ever before on possession.

Only newly managerless Gateshead are attempting more passes per 90 minutes than Barnet’s 552. Of those, 468 connect with another player in black and amber – again, second best in the National League. Last season, those figures were 468.41 and 380.52 respectively – a significant uptick.

Although the leaders are patient in possession, waiting for the right moments to try the killer pass, they are getting the ball into dangerous areas more often. Where last season they averaged 117.2 completed forward passes per 90, that number has risen to 145.08 this term.

In terms of final-third passes – that is passes ending in the final third – they’re up from 42.76 completions per match to 50.58. In both metrics, they are the best in the National League.

None of that matters, of course, unless you’re creating and scoring chances.

Barnet are creating the highest expected goals value per game this season. Expected goals (xG) is a value given to every shot based on a variety of factors including the shot location, type of shot (volley, header, etc) and number of defenders between the shooter and goal. A penalty, for example, has an xG value of 0.75 in most models. In other words, a 75 per cent chance of going in.

Brennan’s side are creating chances worth an xG of 2.1 per 90 minutes – more than anyone else. Last season, their average xG per 90 was 1.88, which was only good enough to rank second.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, goals are going in at a higher rate than last term: 2.08 per game as opposed to 1.93. That despite missing last season’s top scorer Nicke Kabamba for seven games between August and September.

Defensively, using the same expected goals metric, there’s been an improvement too. From an average of 1.31 xG conceded last year, the Bees have tightened up to 0.97 xG against this season.

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