The Vanarama View: The Golden Boys In Front Of Goal

The ultimate prize remains promotion but in this week of individual awards, with Manchester City metronome Rodri claiming the Ballon d’Or, who will win the Golden Boot?

Tom Bodell from title sponsors Vanarama looks at the leading contenders with 16 matches gone...

1. Nick Haughton (AFC Fylde) – 11

No one in the Vanarama National League has scored more goals in 2024 than Fylde talisman Haughton with 23. Former head coach Chris Beech got the best from the 30-year-old who carried his 2023/24 form into the new campaign, netting seven times in his first six games.

However, those goals came in three games: An opening-day hat-trick against Solihull Moors and braces in defeat to Eastleigh and Yeovil Town. For the second season running, Haughton has also netted from halfway.

It should come as little surprise that his expected goals (xG) tally – which measures the quality of every shot from 0-1 – stands at just 3.55. In other words, he is running hot. While he clearly has a knack for the spectacular, the data suggests it’s not repeatable.

2. Gus Scott-Morriss (Southend United) – 9

The form of Southend’s flying wing-back was one of the stories of the early part of the season as Scott-Morriss rattled in nine goals in his first 12 games, only failing to score in three outings.

The former Hemel Hempstead Town defender has always been a goal threat – he bagged eight last season and averages a goal every four games for the Shrimpers. But he has gone three without scoring, which virtually counts as a goal drought.

Evidently, Kevin Maher has found a way to get the 27-year-old into dangerous positions. As we can see from his xG shot map, he tends to score from a certain area. Perhaps teams have wised up, perhaps his remarkable run was always going to come to an end.

=2. Kairo Mitchell (Rochdale) – 9

Fans of King’s Lynn Town, Chesterfield, Notts County and Eastleigh caught glimpses of Mitchell’s talent – but the Grenadian has flourished at Rochdale.

His nine goals this season all came in a seven-game streak between August 31 and September 28, winning the Vanarama National League Player of the Month award for September.

He only ranks fifth for touches in the box versus all strikers while his xG of 6.57 puts him seventh. All those goals have come from open play so a slight over performance isn’t a concern.

The knock on the 27-year-old is his historical knack for being streaky. He hit a career-best 14 last term but eight of those came during an 11-game spell through September and November. He clearly enjoys this time of year!

4. Callum Stead (Barnet) – 8

Talk about stepping up. Former Brackley Town forward Stead has imperiously led the line for title-chasing Barnet in the absence of Nicke Kabamba.

He bagged 15 in just 20 National League starts last term but has already made 12 starts for Dean Brennan’s side this season, making himself undroppable.

With Kabamba fit again, Stead’s will revert to playing in a more withdrawn role but his intelligence and ability to find space mean his goalscoring exploits shouldn’t suffer too much.

His goals, as we can see, have all come from a central area which is important for consistency. It’s no surprise he’s virtually nailed his xG, or that he leads the way for strikers’ touches in the box with 71.

=4. Paul McCallum (Eastleigh) – 8

Nobody has a higher xG than last season’s Golden Boot winner. Thirty-one goals did the trick for McCallum last term, and he could achieve something similar this term.

An xG of 10.59 becomes 7.95 in post-shot xG. That is the quality of on-target chances only, which indicates good goalkeeping or misfortune on the striker’s part.

Like Stead, we can see McCallum is absolutely ruthless between the lines of the goal. In fact, he’s only taken a solitary shot from outside the box this season. No wonder his xG is a divisional best – he simply does not waste his time with low-value shots.

6. Nicke Kabamba (Barnet), Jack Stevens (Solihull Moors), Regan Linney (Altrincham), Christian Doidge (Forest Green Rovers), Ollie Pearce (York City), Mike Fondop (Oldham Athletic), Dion Pereira (Dagenham & Redbridge), Mani Dieseruvwe (Hartlepool United) – 7

There are a few names to keep an eye on here.

Nicke Kabamba is fit again and making up for lost time with seven in as many games since returning to fitness. Christian Doidge knows this level well and hit 25 in 41 last time he was here with FGR.

Mani Dieseruvwe shouldn’t be counted out despite Hartlepool United’s struggles. He got 23 for a mid-table side last term and five in his last four.

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