The Vanarama View: South Title Stats Offer Vital Clues

Hornchurch, Hemel Hempstead Town, Farnborough, Boreham Wood, Slough Town, Weston-super-Mare and Eastbourne Borough have all been top for at least one matchday.

Tom Bodell from title sponsors Vanarama takes a closer look at what promises to be an enthralling battle for the title.

At the time of writing, the top three in National League South finished 13th (Weston-super-Mare), 19th (Eastbourne Borough) and 16th (Truro City) last term.

Plenty expected George Elokobi’s FA Cup heroes at Maidstone United, Chelmsford City under new ownership, Boreham Wood back in the South after nine years or the inimitable Marc White and Dorking Wanderers to be in the title shake-up.

But for assorted reasons, they have all come up short. So far.

Truro City had the chance to go top on Tuesday night at Boreham Wood, so I went along to watch the Wood claim a 1-0 win over the Tinners. The visitors had chances, forcing keeper Nathan Ashmore into a pair of saves that demonstrated his agility and reflexes.

That was Truro’s first defeat in eight. October’s Vanarama National League South Player of the Month Tyler Harvey was effectively neutralised by Boreham Wood’s back three. With 10 goals, the 29-year-old is the South’s highest scorer.

Set up in a 5-3-2, John Askey’s side had completed the second-most crosses of any team in the division (105) prior to Tuesday’s defeat with wing-backs Tyler Love-Holmes and Ryan Law charged with getting high and wide to deliver. Harvey is usually the beneficiary of those crosses, attempting more headers (16) than anyone else in the division.

Nobody in the South has a higher expected goals (xG) tally than the Truro skipper (10.63). This gives every shot a player or team takes a value between 0-1 based on the statistical chance of it going in. Harvey, with a league-high 52 shots among strikers, is clinical.

Boreham Wood have the division’s second-best defence, though, with only Weston-super-Mare – who stay top after Truro’s slip – bettering the 14 goals they have conceded with 12.

However, the Seagulls ought to be wary of the data. They have an expected goals against (xGA) value of 22.96. This metric measures the likelihood of every shot a side faces based on factors including the type of shot and its position. With an overperformance of more than 10, Weston have clearly benefitted from some good goalkeeping – and some charitable finishing too!

Goalkeeper Max Harris, who is on loan from Cheltenham Town, is more than doing his bit. He has faced efforts worth 9.56 xGA but conceded just four times in his seven outings so far.

Offensively, former Manchester City youngster Luke Coulson has been the Seagulls’ main man with eight goals and as many assists from the wing. No winger has more and his expected assists (xA) value – which measures how likely a pass is to result in an assist – stands at a divisional high of 5.04.

Eastbourne Borough were almost relegated in their first season under the ownership of Simon Leslie. But they survived by six points and two places.

This term, they have got things right and find themselves sixth in the xG tables with 28.74 expected goals.

George Alexander has led the way on that front, bagging nine in just National League South starts against an xG of 7.77 which puts him second behind Harvey.

Typically set up in a 4-3-3, Eastbourne are on the more direct end of the scale, averaging the fifth-most completed long passes in the South. Out of possession, they are hard-working, recovering the third-most balls in the opponents’ half (1,599) of any side in the division.

Impressively, only Weston (19) have accumulated more away points than the Sports’ 15. That is a significant improvement on last term when they collected just 21 on their travels in the whole campaign.

A note of caution, however. The 22 goals Adam Murray’s side conceded have are distinctly mid-table. According to our xG model, it’s not out of place. They should have shipped 24.87 which may be cause for concern.

With just 10 points separating the leaders and 10th-placed Chesham United, very little makes sense in this topsy-turvy division. Long may it continue.

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PHOTO MARTIN STAINER