The Vanarama View: It Could Be A Five-Team Title Race!

The Bees are firmly in the battle secure EFL promotion for the first time since 2014/15, playing musical chairs with York City and Forest Green Rovers for top spot.

But Gateshead and Oldham Athletic are only just behind the peloton and can’t be ruled out either.

Tom Bodell from title sponsors Vanarama looks at the contenders’ fixture lists to see if we can glean anything from what’s happened and what’s coming up.

Let’s start with the leaders. York City went a league-best 12 without defeat earlier this season but have lost two of their last four, including a 2-0 reverse at Forest Green Rovers live on DAZN.

However, they were 3-1 winners at home to Barnet – then top – in late October. Their record against struggling sides is almost perfect. Only Boston United (23rd) have beaten the Minstermen who have brushed aside Maidenhead (6-2), Ebbsfleet United (4-0) and AFC Fylde (3-0) this term.

City face Oldham (5th) and Gateshead (4th) in successive festive fixtures, while Rochdale (6th) and Sutton United (7th) await early in 2025. Their finish is gentle, too, with Gateshead (4th) and Oldham (5th) the only members of the current top seven they’ll face in their final six.

Barnet are back in form after winning just one of four between October 19 and November 16. After facing York (3rd), Rochdale (5th) and Oldham (5th) in successive games, their schedule eases up this month.

Ebbsfleet (24th) are next, with FC Halifax Town (10th), Sutton (7th), Eastleigh (13th) and Hartlepool (11th) before a trip to FGR (3rd) on January 14.

The Bees have the kindest run-in as things stand. They finish with Braintree Town (19th), Wealdstone (20th), Eastleigh (13th), Sutton (7th), Aldershot Town (17th) and Fylde (22nd).

After a modest start, Forest Green Rovers have found their stride. Steve Cotterill’s side are unbeaten in nine (W6, D3). York are the only contenders they’ve beaten in that run, though. Their two league defeats were at Barnet (then 12th) and Oldham (6th).

The Green Army have – at the time of writing – a potentially tricky run-in, however: Gateshead (H), Yeovil (A), Tamworth (H), Oldham (H), Hartlepool (A) make up five of their last six, along with a trip to Wealdstone.

Gateshead deserve huge credit, not only for forcing their way into the discussion (again) but staying there after manager Rob Elliot left for League One Crawley Town.

The Tynesiders have developed a knack for beating the top sides while tripping up against the strugglers. Already this season, they have beaten Eastleigh (1st), Barnet (3rd) while losing to Tamworth (23rd) and Fylde (20th).

Their run-in makes for interesting reading with Barnet (A), Forest Green (A) and York City (H) to play. A trip to rivals Hartlepool and a visit from Southend also feature.

Finally, it’s Oldham Athletic. Beaten just twice this term, Micky Mellon’s side are draw specialists. Only Hartlepool and Southend (8) have more than their seven.

Impressively, the Latics are yet to lose to any of their direct promotion rivals, drawing 1-1 v Gateshead and 0-0 against Barnet, either side of a 1-0 win over Forest Green. Leaders York make the trip to Boundary Park – where they’ve lost just once this term – on Boxing Day in what promises to be a tasty encounter.

If they go into the final six needing points, Oldham will have to get something from successive trips to York (April 21) and Forest Green (April 26) before finishing at home to Ebbsfleet (24th).

Only one thing is guaranteed. Trying to predict who will hold the title aloft is entirely futile and the twists and turns ahead will render all our analysis moot!

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