Show Of Spirit Is Needed In Battle To Beat The Drop

Fans of Boston United, AFC Fylde, Wealdstone and Ebbsfleet United – who currently occupy the relegation places – will certainly hope so.

Tom Bodell from title sponsors Vanarama takes a closer look at the teams at the foot of the Vanarama National League table...

Managers have complained since the dawn of time about missed chances and the concession of soft goals. Now we have a way to examine the validity of those claims by digging into the underlying numbers.

Expected goals (xG) is a phrase that has become increasingly prominent in football. It is a metric that gives every shot a value between zero and one.

Factors include the distance from goal, type of shot, angle and number of defenders between the shooter and the goal.

There is good news for Wealdstone. On the strength of their expected goals tally for the season, they rank 10th in the Vanarama National League with 17.94. The Stones have only found the back of the net nine times in 12 games this season and that difference (8.94) is the biggest in the division.

So, what can that discrepancy be attributed to? Simply put: Either good goalkeeping or poor finishing. And, good news, there’s a metric for that!

Post-shot xG (PSxG) follows the same principles as xG. The difference is PSxG takes into account on-target efforts only. It is a more acute measure of a team’s proficiency in front of goal.

Therefore, a team with a higher post-shot xG than expected goals tally is increasing the value of their attempts with high-quality finishing. A side with a lower PSxG than xG is detracting from those efforts with poor finishing.

The Stones’ PSxG is 13.68 – the third worst in the division – which suggests they are being wasteful in front of goal. This could be by shooting directly at the goalkeeper rather than picking out the corners.

It’s a similar story at newly promoted Boston United. At –5.69, Ian Culverhouse’s side have the fourth-biggest difference between their xG (17.69) and the number of goals they’ve actually scored (12).

Unlike Wealdstone, last season’s North Promotion Final winners’ PSxG (17.77) isn’t radically different to their xG (17.69). That suggests the Pilgrims have met some in-form goalkeepers since promotion.

It’s less encouraging for bottom side Ebbsfleet and fellow strugglers Fylde – both of whom have changed manager already.

The Coasters prop up the xG table, having recorded just 10.76 expected goals this season.

They have exceeded that figure with 13 strikes. Ten of those have come from talisman Nick Haughton, however, which is not sustainable.

New Fleet boss Harry Watling will have been fully aware of the situation he was inheriting at the Kuflink Stadium. Ebbsfleet have the second-lowest xG in the division (10.85) and have scored just nine times so far.

Both sides’ finishing has let them down, posting PSxG scores of 9.82 and 8.02, respectively.

The good news? There are still 34 games remaining to right the wrongs of the season so far.

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PHOTO BY SEAN TROUP