Have Rochdale Already Got A Title Winning Striker In Their Ranks?

Kairo Mitchell enjoyed the best season of his career in 2023/24, scoring 13 Vanarama National League goals. He already has nine this term and was rewarded with the September Player of the Month award as a result.

Tom Bodell from title sponsors Vanarama takes a closer look at the Dale hitman’s impressive start to the new campaign.

We’ve already seen some impressive scoring feats in the race to clinch the Vanarama National League’s Golden Boot. Nick Haughton AFC Fylde has rattled in 11 goals – more even than Erling Haaland – while right-back Gus Scott-Morriss has bagged nine for Southend United.

But perhaps it’s Mitchell who has posted the most impressive run of form, netting in seven consecutive games before a rare blip in the 2-2 draw at Ebbsfleet United.

No matter, the 26-year-old was back among the goals on Saturday as the Dale dispatched Fylde in the FA Cup Fourth Qualifying Round, bagging a hat-trick.

We’ve used expected goals a lot in these columns and we will again. A quick recap: Expected goals (or xG) refer to a number between 0-1 given to every shot, based on a variety of factors – including shot type, position and angle – pertaining to its likelihood of going in.

A penalty – as sure-fire a chance as you might get – usually carries an xG score of 0.75 in most models. In other words, a 75 per cent chance of going in.

So what can we glean from Mitchell’s xG? At 5.73, it’s the sixth highest among all strikers in the National League. Eastleigh’s Paul McCallum – winner of last season’s Golden Boot with 31 goals – leads the way with 8.7 xG.

Per 90 minutes, that equates to an xG of 0.43 which is within touching distance of the magic one in two marker (0.5) that all goal scorers strive for.

From Mitchell’s xG shot map, we can see that he does not waste his time with many low-value efforts. These are denoted by the yellow markers and are classified as such because of the distance to goal, angle, or number of defenders between him and the goal. In fact, he’s taken just one shot outside the penalty area this season.

Better still is his post-shot xG map. This follows the same principles as expected but considers only on-target efforts. It looks at the value the shooter adds – or detracts – from their attempts on goal.

In Mitchell’s case, we can see every one of his nine Vanarama National League goals this term have been mid-to-high-value efforts. Either because they were originally or because he has added value with smart finishing.

This is good news because it means they are repeatable. If he had been scoring from impossible angles or distances, some regression to the mean would have to be expected in the remainder of the season.

Despite that, Mitchell will not be found hanging around in the penalty area. He is an active presence in games and that is reflected in his 3.23 penalty area touches per 90 minutes. Even among National League strikers, that is only good enough to rank 18th.

Interestingly, though, he is less involved in Rochdale’s build up this season. Where in 2023/24 he averaged 11.79 pass attempts per 90, that number has dropped to 7.82.

The number of defensive actions averaged per 90 has decreased as well, falling from 4.26 to 3.38. The pay-off? More touches in the box (up from 2.73) and more shots (up from 2.02 to 2.26).

That can at least in part be attributed to Jimmy McNulty’s switch from 4-4-2 last season to a 3-4-3 this term with Mitchell now the focal point of Dale’s attack. His role has been refined with less expectation of him to press or create and a greater onus on being active in dangerous areas.

As opposing defences can testify – it’s paying off!

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